Canadian Oil Sands Trust 2006 Annual Report
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Management's Discussion and Analysis

Proposed Changes In Trust Tax Legislation

On October 31, 2006, the Minister of Finance announced the federal government’s intention to impose a new tax on certain distributions from existing income and royalty trusts effective in 2011. A stated goal was to equalize the tax burden between income trusts and corporations after a transition period. On December 21, 2006, draft legislation was released for comment. Assuming the proposed changes are enacted, it is expected that the new tax will apply to Canadian Oil Sands’ distributions and will ultimately have a material adverse impact on the cash available for distributions to Unitholders after the transition period in 2011. Under the proposed rules, distributions of non-portfolio earnings (as defined in the draft legislation) of the Trust would not be deductible to the Trust and would be taxable at the rate of 31.5%, thus reducing the distributions paid. Currently almost all of Canadian Oil Sands’ Unitholder distributions are comprised of non-portfolio earnings. Distributions of non-portfolio earnings would be considered dividends under the new rules and eligible for the dividend tax credit, similar to the tax treatment on corporate dividends. As such, the after-tax impact would be relatively neutral to Canadian investors who hold our Units in taxable accounts. Investors who hold our Units in tax deferred accounts and non-resident Unitholders would see their after-tax realizations decline significantly. The impact of the announcement resulted in a substantial decline in the market value of trust units generally.

While the proposed changes, if enacted, will negatively impact the after-tax realizations of some Unitholders, the fundamental business of Canadian Oil Sands remains unchanged. The Trust does not rely on the trust structure and issuance of equity to sustain its business. We have long-life reserves of approximately 40 years, based on Stage 3 productive capacity rates, with virtually no decline in our production profile. As well, we have approximately $2 billion of tax pools available to defer taxable income in future years.  We have revised our net debt target to $1.6 billion, up from $1.2 billion, to accelerate fuller payout of free cash flow and allow the Trust to maximize distributions and conserve tax deductions until the proposed tax changes take effect in 2011.

The new rules are not expected to significantly limit our near-term Syncrude growth opportunities. The proposed changes permit “normal growth” throughout the transition period by allowing cumulative increases of equity capital of 40% in 2007 and 20% in each of the subsequent three years for a doubling of equity capital between now and 2010. Equity capital growth in excess of these limits may be deemed “undue expansion” and may subject the Trust’s distributions to the proposed tax changes prior to the end of the transition period.

In the absence of final legislation implementing the 2006 proposed changes, the implications are difficult to fully evaluate and no assurance can be provided as to the extent and timing of their application to Canadian Oil Sands and our Unitholders. Management will evaluate Canadian Oil Sands’ alternatives to most effectively optimize value for our Unitholders.

   
Unitholders' Capital and Unit Trading Activity
 
Risk Management