Canadian Oil Sands Trust 2006 Annual Report
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Management's Discussion and Analysis

Risk Management

Sensitivities

Changes in certain factors and market conditions could potentially impact Canadian Oil Sands’ outlook. The following table provides a sensitivity analysis of the key factors affecting the Trust’s performance. In addition to the factors described in the table, the supply/demand equation for synthetic crude oil in the North American markets could impact the price differential for SSB relative to crude benchmarks; however, this factor is difficult to predict and quantify.

2007 Outlook Sensitivity Analysis

  Annual
Sensitivity
Cash from Operating
Activities Increase
Variable1   $ millions $/Unit
Syncrude operating costs decrease Cdn$1.00/bbl 31 0.07
Syncrude operating costs decrease Cdn$50 million 14 0.03
WTI crude oil price increase US$1.00/bbl 31 0.07
Syncrude production increase 2 million bbls 30 0.06
Canadian dollar weakening US$0.01/Cdn$ 20 0.04
AECO natural gas price decrease Cdn$0.50/GJ 15 0.03
       
1An opposite change in each of these variables will result in the opposite cash from operating activities impacts.

 

   
2007 Outlook
 
Review of Alberta Oil Sands Royalty