Annual Report 2007
Canadian Oil Sands Trust
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management's discussion and analysis

2008 outlook

Syncrude's 2008 annual production is estimated to total 115 million barrels with a range of 110 to 120 million barrels (net to the Trust, equivalent to 42 million barrels with a range of 40 to 44 million barrels). The single point production estimate incorporates Syncrude's extensive 2008 maintenance program, an allowance for unplanned outages and recognition that Syncrude is still working to establish reliable Stage 3 design rates. During 2008 Syncrude plans to perform turnarounds of Coker 8-1 in the second quarter and Coker 8-2 in the third quarter as well as associated maintenance work on other units. The production range reflects our current best estimate of the upside and downside in volumes Syncrude could experience, depending on operational reliability, in 2008.

Purchased bitumen should not be required to reach the anticipated 2008 production target; however, Syncrude has decided to increase the flexibility in its SCO production by arranging for the purchase of incremental bitumen in 2008 in the event that internal bitumen supply shortfalls occur. During the year, productivity of the mining operations may be reduced due to maintenance or extreme weather conditions, resulting in temporary decreases of internally-produced bitumen. This additional purchased bitumen supply will support increased production during times when excess upgrading capacity is available. Syncrude is focused on improving reliability in the mining operations to meet the rising needs of the upgrader as we ramp up production to design capacity rates. We currently estimate imported bitumen volumes in 2008 will be less than five percent of total supply at Syncrude and therefore do not anticipate such purchases to have a material impact on Syncrude's production or our financial results.

We expect the Trust's revenues after crude oil purchases and transportation expense in 2008 to total $3.3 billion, based on an average WTI price of US$80 per barrel, an average foreign exchange rate of $1.00 US/Cdn, and an average SCO discount to Canadian dollar WTI of $2.50 per barrel. We are budgeting operating costs of $26.83 per barrel, which includes $6.48 per barrel for purchased energy based on an average AECO natural gas price of $7.00 per GJ for 2008. The Outlook for our 2008 operating expenses also reflects currently estimated repair costs of $50 million ($18 million, net to the Trust) for the damages incurred in the December 2007 fire. We anticipate Crown royalties expense to total $443 million, or $10.49 per barrel, in 2008.

We anticipate our cash from operating activities to total $1.6 billion, or $3.24 per Unit. We estimate our share of Syncrude's capital expenditures to total $279 million with approximately 82 percent of the 2008 capital expenditures directed to maintenance of operations and the remaining 18 percent to the SER project.

Distributions paid in 2008 are expected to be 100 percent taxable as other income. The actual taxability of the distributions will be determined and reported to Unitholders prior to the end of the first quarter of 2009.

Changes in certain factors and market conditions could potentially impact Canadian Oil Sands' Outlook. The following table provides a sensitivity analysis of the key factors affecting the Trust's cash from operating activities. In addition to the factors described in the table, the supply/demand equation and pipeline access for synthetic crude oil in the North American markets could also impact the price differential for SCO relative to crude benchmarks but these factors are difficult to predict.