What
we said
for 20071 |
What
we did
in 2007 |
|
Our outlook for 20082 |
Factors shaping
our 2008 outlook |
| Sales3 (mmbbls) |
| 39 - 44 |
41 |
Exceeded original mid-point production guidance of 40 mmbbls. |
40 - 44 |
Midpoint production outlook is 42 mmbbls.
- Extensive maintenance program with two coker turnarounds scheduled
- Allowance for unplanned outages
- Recognition that efforts to achieve sustained design production rates will continue
|
| Operating Cost ($/bbl) |
| 25.83 |
25.23 |
Met original guidance. |
26.83 |
Per barrel operating costs expected to increase.
- Higher purchased natural gas price
- Continued cost pressure in the oil sands industry for materials and labour
- Includes $50 million estimate (Syncrude level) for repair costs related to December 2007 operational incident
|
| Cash From Operating Activities ($/Trust Unit)4 |
| 1.79 |
2.87 |
Exceeded guidance by $1.08 per Trust Unit.
- Better than expected benchmark WTI crude oil prices
- Better than expected sales price for Syncrude's crude oil relative to benchmark WTI prices
- Offset by a stronger than expected C$/US$ foreign exchange rate, higher Crown royalties and a larger than expected increase in operating working capital, principally as a result of higher prices
|
3.24 |
Cash From Operating Activities is expected to increase in 2008.
- Higher outlook for production and US$ oil prices
- Offset by stronger C$, weaker differentials, and higher operating and non-production costs
|
| Capital Expenditures ($ millions) |
| 255 |
183 |
Spent $72 million less than expected.
- Spending on certain projects was deferred
|
279 |
Capital expenditures estimated to increase by $96 million.
- Includes spending on 2007 deferred projects and $51 million for the Syncrude Emissions Reduction project
|
Assumptions:
WTI Crude Oil Price (US$/bbl) |
| 55.00 |
72.36 |
Average US$ WTI crude oil price was about US$17 per bbl higher than forecast.
- Increase was mitigated by a stronger C$
|
80.00 |
|
| Premium (Discount) Price Differential to C$ WTI (C$/bbl) |
| (4.00) |
1.63 |
Price received for SCO relative to the average C$ WTI crude oil price was $5.63 per barrel better than forecast.
- Temporary disconnect occurred between WTI crude oil prices and other benchmark light, sweet crude oils with WTI prices being lower during the second and third quarters of 2007
- Increase in demand for SCO due to reduced synthetic crude oil supply from other producers
|
(2.50) |
An increased supply of synthetic crude oil in the market is expected.
- Disconnect between WTI and other benchmark light, sweet crude oils, which contributed to better prices for SCO in 2007, not expected to occur in 2008
|
| AECO Natural Gas (C$/GJ) |
| 7.50 |
6.14 |
Average natural gas prices were $1.36 per GJ lower than forecast.
- High North American inventories of natural gas exerted downward pressure on prices. (Natural gas is a cost to Syncrude's operations, primarily for conversion to hydrogen as upgrading feedstock).
|
7.00 |
|
| Foreign exchange rate (US$/C$) |
| 0.88 |
0.93 |
|
1.00 |
|
